1107
著者；Silvermanで検索
Matthews, David A., Bernard A. Silverman, 1980: Sensitivity of Convective Cloud Growth to Mesoscale Lifting: A Numerical Analysis of Mesoscale Convective Triggering. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1056–1064.
doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1056:SOCCGT>2.0.CO;2
Sensitivity of Convective Cloud Growth to Mesoscale Lifting: A Numerical Analysis of Mesoscale Convective Triggering
David A. Matthews and Bernard A. Silverman
Office of Atmospheric Resources Management, Water and Power Resources Service, Denver, CO 80225
Abstract
Numerical model simulation of mesoscale lifting of the convective environment indicates that the ability of the environment to develop deep moist convection increases as mesoscale lifting increases. Mesoscale lifting produces increases in modeled cloud development (cloud depth, cloud-top height, number of clouds, etc.) in most of the samples of 232 summer soundings observed in the High Plains as part of HIPLEX (High Plains Cooperative Program). These increases were statistically significant at the P = 0.001 level in most cases. The effect of lifting was found to vary geographically from north to south over the High plains.
On days when convective cloud lines and clusters were observed in satellite imagery, model simulations produced deep convection only when mesoscale released the conditional instability. On days when isolated convective clouds or clear skies prevailed, model simulations produced less intense convective development; however, lifting was often required to supplement surface heating to produce clouds on these days. These results suggest that the model may be used to determine a convective potential index of the effects of lifting on cloud development, provided there is a means for determining the magnitude of mesoscale velocities.
Received: January 7, 1980; Accepted: March 25, 1980
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Sensitivity of Convective Cloud Growth to
Mesoscale Lifting: A Numerical Analysis of Mesoscale Convective Triggering David A. Matthews, Bernard A. Silverman Monthly Weather Review Volume 108, Issue 7 (July 1980) pp. 1056-1064 doi:
10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1056:SOCCGT>2.0.CO;2
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Optimization of Warm-Cloud Seeding Agents
by Microencapsulation Techniques LOREN D. NELSON, BERNARD A. SILVERMAN Monthly Weather Review Volume 100, Issue 2 (February 1972) pp. 153-158 doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0153:OOWSAB>2.3.CO;2
[Abstract]
[PDF] [Add
to Favorites] NELSON, LOREN D.,
BERNARD A. SILVERMAN, 1972: Optimization of Warm-Cloud Seeding Agents by
Microencapsulation Techniques1. Mon. Wea. Rev., 100, 153–158. doi:
10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0153:OOWSAB>2.3.CO;2 Optimization of
Warm-Cloud Seeding Agents by Microencapsulation Techniques1 LOREN D. NELSON and
BERNARD A. SILVERMAN Air Force Cambridge
Research Laboratories, Bedford, Mass. Abstract Microencapsulation
technology, whereby single crystals or solution droplets are chemically
“packaged” inside thin coating shells, provides a method of optimizing the
chemical and physical properties of warm-cloud seeding agents. Ethyl
cellulose【エチルセルロース】-encapsulated urea【尿素】 and sodium【ナトリウム】 chloride【塩化物】 particles have been produced in the laboratory and
their hygroscopic properties investigated gravimetrically【重力測定の】, microscopically in a diffusion chamber, and optically
in a large fog chamber. These investigations
indicate that microencapsulation provides for a relatively narrow particle
spectrum with a sharp lower size limit, gives the particles more structural
integrity, prevents degeneration of the particle spectrum and formation of
“fines” during handling and dispersal, and greatly reduces clumping【凝集し】 and caking【固くなる】 during storage,
handling, and dissemination. Hygroscopic properties of the seeding particles
are not affected by the presence of the encapsulating coating. As an encapsulated
particle grows by vapor diffusion in a humid environment, its core material
is released by diffusion through its permeable【浸透できる】 but insoluble ethyl cellulose shell. Individual
seeding particles are thus unmistakably “tagged,” providing an objective
method for evaluating the seeding effects. The process lends itself to
large-scale production and promises to be more economical than mechanical
milling and sizing to an equivalent size spectrum. 吸湿性の種まき物質である、尿素、塩化ナトリウムをエチルセルロースでカプセル化する技術を提案する。カプセル化によって、種まき物質が固まってしまうのを避けることができる。エチルセルロースは水に溶けないが、水蒸気を通すので、このまま種として用いることができる。カプセル化する手法は、粉を作るよりも経済的である。7/12’11 |
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Reply Bernard A. Silverman
Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society Volume 83, Issue 5
(May 2002) pp. 740-740 doi:
10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0740:REPLY>2.3.CO;2
[Abstract]
[PDF (25 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] Woodley and
Rosenfeld (2002, henceforth referred to as WR) agree with Silverman
(2001,henceforth referred to as Silverman) that glaciogenic dynamic-mode seeding
for rainfall enhancement has not yet been scientifically proven.
Nevertheless, WR seek clarification of Silverman’s assertion that the
credibility of the dynamic-mode seeding concept has not yet been established
because some readers are interpreting it as meaning that dynamic-mode seeding
is lacking in scientific basis and is, therefore, not worthy of continued
research. It is emphasized for
the record that Silverman did not challenge the scientific basis of the
dynamic-mode seeding concept. Silverman’s principal objective was to
determine whether the dynamic-mode seeding concept had been scientifically
proven in accordance with specified proof-of-concept criteria by examining
the statistical and physical evidence resulting from numerous experiments conducted
over the past 35 years. Silverman used the terms “not scientifically proven”
and “not scientifically credible” interchangeably in expressing his
conclusion based on the fact that another valid, albeit less common, synonym
for the word credible is authentic or convincing. It is unfortunate that
Silverman’s attempt to enhance the readability of his paper through variety
of expression was the cause of semantic confusion for some readers. It is
also emphasized that Silverman did, in fact, support continued research on
dynamic-mode seeding in order to resolve the uncertainties, inconsistencies,
and deficiencies in the supporting statistical and physical evidence obtained
thus far. Emphasizing that all of the support for the dynamic seeding
conceptual model is the result of unconfirmed exploratory analyses, Silverman
recommended the design and conduct of new, more definitive experiments with
narrowly defined, quantitative experimental unit declaration criteria aimed
at confirming the exploratory findings. Silverman recommended that future
research on dynamic-mode seeding of convective clouds, indeed any cloud
seeding technique, should feature well-defined physical–statistical tests of
the seeding concepts, in accordance with the proof-of-concept criteria, in
order to establish their scientific validity. Silverman(2001)に対するコメント、woodyとRosenfeld(2002)に対する返信。 動的な種まきに対しては科学的な証拠（物理的・統計的）が得られていないことに対する解説。 |
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A Critical Assessment of Hygroscopic
Seeding of Convective Clouds for Rainfall Enhancement Bernard A. Silverman Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 84, Issue 9 (September 2003) pp. 1219-1230 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1219
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A Critical Assessment of Glaciogenic
Seeding of Convective Clouds for Rainfall Enhancement Bernard A. Silverman Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 82, Issue 5 (May 2001) pp. 903-923 doi:
10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0903:ACAOGS>2.3.CO;2
[Abstract]
[PDF (180 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] The scientific
evidence for enhancing rainfall from convective clouds by static–mode and
dynamic–mode seeding with glaciogenic agents is examined and critically
assessed. The assessment uses, as a measure of proof of concept, the criteria
for success of any cloud seeding activity that was recommended in the
Scientific Background for the 1998 AMS Policy Statement on Planned and
Inadvertent Weather Modification, criteria that require both statistical and
physical evidence. Based on a rigorous examination of the accumulated results
of the numerous experimental tests of the static–mode and dynamic–mode
seeding concepts conducted over the past four decades, it has been found that
they have not yet provided either the statistical or physical evidence
required to establish their scientific validity. Thus, the conclusion of
several high–level reviews of weather modification conducted by the Advisory
Committee on Weather Control, the National Academy of Sciences, and the
Weather Modification Advisory Board during the period from 1957 to 1978 that
cloud seeding was promising, unproven, and worth pursuing is still valid
today. The research and
experiments related to the static–mode and dynamic–mode seeding concepts,
especially those conducted since 1978, provided physical insights about some
important cold–cloud precipitation development mechanisms and the possible
effect of glaciogenic seeding on them. Exploratory, post hoc analyses of some
of the experiments have suggested positive effects of seeding under
restricted meteorological conditions, at extended times after seeding and, in
general, for reasons not contemplated in the guiding conceptual seeding
models; however, these exploratory results have never been confirmed through
subsequent experimentation. New experiments are needed to resolve the uncertainties,
inconsistencies, and deficiencies in the statistical and physical evidence in
support of static–mode and dynamic–mode seeding of convective clouds obtained
thus far. Considering the statistically positive result of hygroscopic flare
seeding of cold convective clouds in South Africa and its replication in
Mexico, and of hygroscopic particle seeding of warm convective clouds in
Thailand, efforts to obtain the physical evidence required to place the
hygroscopic seeding concept on a secure scientific foundation is, perhaps, a
more immediate and higher–priority investment. Future experiments
on glaciogenic seeding of convective clouds, indeed any cloud seeding
technique, should feature well–defined physical–statistical tests of the
seeding concepts, in accordance with the proof–of–concept criteria, in order
to establish their scientific validity. People with water interests at stake
who are investing in operational glaciogenic cloud seeding projects for
precipitation enhancement should be aware of the inherent risks of applying
an unproven cloud seeding technology and provide a means of evaluation that
allows for an assessment of the scientific integrity and cost effectiveness
of the operational seeding projects. Those who are contemplating investing in
operational hygroscopic seeding projects for precipitation enhancement based
on the statistically positive experimental results in South Africa, Thailand,
and Mexico should be aware that, in the absence of physical evidence required
by the proof–of–concept criteria, this cloud seeding technology is also
unproven. AMSは1998年に人工降雨の科学的成功の基準を定めた。動的な種まきについては、この基準を満たす、成功の結果が得られていない。 1978年には人工降雨の考え方の整理がなされており、動的・静的、吸湿性・氷晶化の種まき手法がまとめられた。 今後南ア・タイ・メキシコで行われる吸湿性の種まき結果に注目したい。7/21’11 |
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A Numerical Simulation of Warm Cumulus
Clouds: Part I. Parameterized vs Non-Parameterized Microphysics Bernard A. Silverman, Morton Glass Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 30, Issue 8 (November 1973) pp. 1620-1637 doi:
10.1175/1520-0469(1973)030<1620:ANSOWC>2.0.CO;2
[Abstract]
[PDF (1296 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] Abstract A time-dependent,
one-dimensional model of the life cycle of an isolated warm cumulus cloud is
presented that combines the vertical equation of motion, the equation of mass
continuity, the first law of thermodynamics, and the equations of continuity
of water vapor and liquid hydrometeors. The dynamic interaction between the
cloud and its environment is modeled by two entrainment terms: turbulent
entrainment representing lateral mixing at the side boundaries of the cloud,
and dynamic entrainment representing the systematic inflow or outflow of air
required to satisfy mass continuity. The formation and growth of drops by
condensation, stochastic coalescence, and droplet breakup are modeled in
detail for 67 logarithmically-spaced Eulerian size classes covering a range
of particle sizes from 2 to 4040 μm in radius. The numerical method of
simulating microphysical processes was investigated 1) by systematically
reducing the number of mass classes used to represent the hydrometeor size
spectrum and 2) by replacing the rigorous formulation of the microphysical
processes by a set of parameterized expressions. 暖かい雲の生涯を再現する1次元モデルを作成した。鉛直運動の方程式、質量の連続式、熱力学の第一法則、水蒸気と水物質の連続を考慮する。雲と周囲の場については、乱流による横からの混入、力学を満足する流入・流出の2つを考慮している。雲粒の凝結・凝集（統計的）、分裂を67のビンで計算している。粒子は2～4040マイクロまでを考慮。 Calculations with
the model gave results which were in good agreement with observations of the
dynamical and microphysical properties of warm maritime cumuli. The formation
and development of the tropical rain shower was particularly well simulated.
Reasonable model predictions were obtained when as few as 45
logarithmically-spaced mass classes were used to characterize the hydrometeor
size spectrum. When fewer mass classes or parameterized microphysical
techniques were used, the model results were significantly different. 海洋の積雲についてはよく再現できた。質量の分類と雲物理を簡略化するとかなり結果は変わる。7/26’11 |
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A Comparison of the Warm Fog Clearing
Capabilities of Some Hygroscopic Materials Bruce A. Kunkel, Bernard A. Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 9, Issue 4 (August 1970) pp. 634-638 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0634:ACOTWF>2.0.CO;2
[Abstract]
[PDF (414 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] 霧の消散に有効な物質をモデルで調べた。乾いているときは水酸化物・塩化物が有効で、飽和状態ではNH4NO3のような融解性の物質が有効である。他の物質はコロイド化したり、腐食性が強く適切でなかった。硝化アンモニウムが最も適切であるとわかった7/29’11 |
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A Numerical Model of Warm Fog Dissipation
by Hygroscopic Particle Seeding Bernard A. Silverman, Bruce A. Kunkel Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 9, Issue 4 (August 1970) pp. 627-633 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0627:ANMOWF>2.0.CO;2 Silverman, Bernard A., Bruce A. Kunkel, 1970: A
Numerical Model of Warm Fog Dissipation by Hygroscopic Particle Seeding. J.
Appl. Meteor., 9, 627–633. Air Force
Cambridge Research Laboratories, Bedford, Mass. [Abstract]
[PDF (567 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] Abstract A numerical model has been developed which simulates
the modification of warm fog caused by the condensation-coalescence growth of
monodispersed hygroscopic particles introduced into the top of a fog layer.
With this model, the effects of the quantity and size of NaCl particles on
the visibility in logs of various drop size spectra and liquid water contents
were determined. The results show that the optimum seeding particle radius is
approximately 10 μ. For fogs with a relatively high turbulence level where
time is an important factor, particles > 10 μ may be necessary. To achieve
the same visibility improvement, the seeding rate is directly proportional to
the fog liquid water content and inversely proportional to the fog drop size.
Because of the large payloads and dispensing rates required, the results
indicate that there is no advantage in using saturated solution droplets
instead of dry particles. 暖かい霧の消散を再現するための数値モデルを作成した。暖かい雲は凝結・併合によって形成される。種まき粒子としてNaClを用いる。計算結果から効果的に雲を消散するためにはおおよそ10μmの粒子が最適であると示された。時間が重要な要因（発達の時間が急速の意？）となる比較的高い擾乱高度を持つ雲には10μmより大きな粒子が必要である。同程度の視程を確保するためには、湿った（飽和した）粒子は、積載量に負担がかかることと、種まきの手間を考慮すると、乾いた粒子に比べて、必ずしも有利、というわけではない。8/1’11 Received: January 12, 1970; Revised: April 1, 1970 |
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The Effect of Spatial Averaging on
Spectrum Estimation Bernard A. Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 7, Issue 2 (April 1968) pp. 168-172 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(1968)007<0168:TEOSAO>2.0.CO;2
[Abstract]
[PDF (336 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] Abstract The effect of
instrument baseline averaging on the estimated spectrum density of a
homogeneous random field of a scalar variable in turbulent flow is
investigated. The spectrum transfer function of the spatial filter is
evaluated for all orientations of the baseline to the vector mean wind. It is
shown that the influence of baseline averaging on the spectrum increases as
the angle between the baseline and the vector mean wind decreases and as the
ratio of the baseline length to the wavelength of the fluctuations increases.
These results can be used to correct the computed spectra of spatially
averaged components of the velocity field in turbulent flow and of spatially
averaged conservative passive additives 【混合物】 in a turbulent
flow. 乱流のスペクトルデータを平均する際の工夫について。【乱流に物質（種まき？）を載せている場合、物質の保存を満たすように平均場を出す必要がある？】8/11’11 |
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A Laser-Fog Disdrometer Bernard A. Silverman, Brian J. Thompson, John H. Ward Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 3, Issue 6 (December 1964) pp. 792-801 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003<0792:ALFD>2.0.CO;2 [Abstract]
[PDF (689 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] An instrument is
described for determining the size distribution of fog droplets 4 microns in diameter
and larger. A film record of the fog droplets is obtained as they pass
relatively undisturbed through the collimated beam of light from a Q-switched
pulsed ruby laser. The recording plane is located in the far field of the
individual droplets but not in the far field of the diameter of the whole
sample volume. Diffraction patterns associated with the individual droplets
are then observed and recorded. Measurement of the characteristic dimensions
in the diffraction【回折】 patterns allows the
droplet diameters to be accurately calculated from well-established
diffraction relationships. The laser disdrometer is capable of
sampling volumes up to five cubic centimeters on each frame of 35 mm film at
a rate of 10 frames per minute. The short pulse length of the laser, as short
as 1.0 microsecond, enables measurements to be made in moderately high winds
without loss of accuracy. The measured distribution is relatively unaffected
by the measuring technique, since no sample collection or dilution is
involved. The method is applicable to sizing both
opaque【不透明な】 and transparent particles of all geometries
and has, therefore, a wider application than discussed in this paper. In
addition, availability of higher repetition rate lasers makes measurements
from aircraft feasible. Received: March 5,
1964; Revised: April 26, 1964 4マイクロ以上の粒径を持つ霧粒を記録する装置を開発した。35㎜フィルムの1フレーム5㎝3までのサンプル体積を記録可能で1分当たり10フレーム記録する。 高速に処理可能なので、航空機で利用できる。8/12’11 |
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A Numerical Analysis of Some Practical
Aspects of Airborne Urea【尿素】 Seeding for Warm Fog Dispersal at
Airports Alan I. Weinstein, Bernard A. Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 12, Issue 5 (August 1973) pp. 771-780 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0771:ANAOSP>2.0.CO;2 [Abstract]
[PDF (807 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] A two-dimensional
Eulerian model of warm fog dispersal by airborne hygroscope particle seeding
is used to evaluate some practical aspects of urea seeding at airports. It is
found that although turbulence and wind shear reduce the effectiveness of
single-line seeding to a point where it is of no practical value, seeding
over a wide area (1−10 mi2) can result in practically useful visibility
improvements in the approach zone and over the runway of airports. The quantity of
material and the cost of the wide-area seeding technique depend upon fog
intensity, fog type, and cross-runway wind speed. For typical fog,
approximately 80,000 lb hr−1 of urea costing $40,000 per hour are needed to
keep the visibility above ½ mi. The figures are reduced to approximately
36,000–58,000 lb and $18,000–29,000 per hour, respectively, if the visibility
needs only to be raised to ¼ mi. 暖かい霧の消失（消散）について、数値計算で解析した。1から10平方マイルの領域（飛行場の離着陸の範囲）に対して、種まきを実施する。 費用は、種まき領域の広さと物質、霧の濃さ・タイプに依存する。典型的な霧の場合、1/2マイル以上の視程を確保するためには、1時間当たり80,000重量ポンド（約26トン）で、尿素が4万ドル必要。 この数字は、指定を1/4でよいとすると11トンから19トン（1,8万~2.9万ドル）へ下げることができる。 8/15’11 |
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On the Sampling Variance of Raingage
Networks Bernard A. Silverman, Linda Koshio Rogers, David Dahl Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 20, Issue 12 (December 1981) pp. 1468-1478 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1981)020<1468:OTSVOR>2.0.CO;2Abstract [Abstract]
[PDF (912 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] コンピュータで計算した等雨量線を元に標本分散（sampling variance）を評価する。具体的には、等雨量線を引いて、等雨量線を楕円で近似して、扁平度や雨量の変化率を調べる。雨量線をモデル化するにはいくつかの方程式を用意している。標本変動や変動係数は降水セルに含まれる雨量計の数に反比例し、雨量の傾きに比例する【雨量計の密度が少なければ、変動が大きくなる。空間的に変化の大きい雨であれば、変動が大きくなる】。 本研究の結果で自然の降雨による変動を評価しておくことで、人工増雨の効果を評価するための、地上雨量計配置の大きさを評価することができる。8/17’11 |
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The Practicability of Dry Ice for On-Top
Seeding of Convective Clouds Edmond W. Holroyd III, Arlin B. Super, Bernard A.
Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 17, Issue 1 (January 1978) pp. 49-63 [Abstract]
[PDF (1082 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] Dry ice is
shown to be an attractive agent for on-top seeding of convective clouds. A
modest payload of small dry ice pellets can effectively seed dozens of clouds,
depending on cloud volumes encountered and crystal concentrations desired. A
dry ice pellet size of about 7 mm diameter is suggested for efficient use of
seeding agent when dropped from the −10°C level. Supercooled convective clouds that were
seeded on-top with dry ice were investigated to determine empirical
nucleation effectiveness values. The clouds were repeatedly penetrated to
measure the resulting ice crystal concentrations. The experiments gave
conservative effectiveness values of 2 to 5 × 10^11th crystals per gram of
dry ice, but with possible error bars extending an order of magnitude to each
side of those values. A well-documented experiment giving effectiveness
values twice as large is discussed in detail. ドライアイスが対流雲に対する冷たいシーディングに有効であることを示した。-10℃より低い雲に対して効率が良くなる。 雲頂付近の過冷却の雲に対してドライアイスの種まきを行い、経験的に効率を決めていく。雲は氷晶が発生するまで繰り返し測定する。 8/18’11 |
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Reply Edmond W. Holroyd III, Arlin B. Super, Bernard A.
Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 17, Issue 12 (December 1978) pp. 1874-1876 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<1874:R>2.0.CO;2
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What Do We Need in Weather Modification? Bernard A. Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 17, Issue 6 (June 1978) pp. 867-871 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<0867:WDWNIW>2.0.CO;2Abstract [Abstract]
[PDF (480 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] 人工気象調整の必要性を、管理の観点から、連邦政府の立場から、降水管理の研究の観点から議論する。技術的な問題点を述べ、改善のための提案を行う。8/22’11 |
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Cloud Condensation Nuclei from a Paper
Mill. Part II: Calculated Effects on Rainfall Edward E. Hindman II, Paul M. Tag, Bernard A.
Silverman, Peter V. Hobbs Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 16, Issue 7 (July 1977) pp. 753-755 Abstract The paper mill at Port
Townsend, Wash., is a source of large and giant condensation nuclei (CCN).
These CCN cause the concentrations of droplets ≥30 μm in diameter to be
higher in small, nonraining warm clouds located in the plume of the mill than
in similar clouds unaffected by the plume. Calculations based on a model for
nonsheared, warm cumulus clouds and a model for warm stratus clouds indicate
that the higher concentrations of large droplets in the clouds in the plume
should not cause any significant changes in the rainfall from these clouds.
These results indicate that the large and giant CCN emitted by the mill are
not by themselves responsible for the increased rainfall measured in the
vicinity of the mill. The heat and moisture emitted by the mill, in
combination with the CCN, may have been responsible for the increased
rainfall. [Abstract]
[PDF (252 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] 要約：製紙工場から出る大雲核は、降水の発達に影響を与えていない。層状雲のモデルで調べた。 ワッシュ、ポートタウンゼンドにある工場は大雲核の起源である。これらの大雲核が30μより大きい暖かい雲を集中させている。シアのない暖かい雲の積雲モデル、暖かい層状雲のモデルで調べたところ、これらの雲は降水の発生にあまり変化がなかった。したがって、核が増えたといって工場の近傍で降水が増える、というわけではない。工場から出る熱・水蒸気によって降水量が増えることはある。8/23’11 |
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An Evaluation of Some Thermal Fog
Dispersal Experiments Bruce A. Kunkel, Bernard A. Silverman, Alan I.
Weinstein Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 13, Issue 6 (September 1974) pp. 666-675 [Abstract]
[PDF (789 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] 1972年に霧の消散実験を行った。液体プロパンガスのバーナを並べた加熱器を使う。 滑走路に横向きに風がある状況で実験して、第2次大戦中にイギリスFIDOで実験された結果と同様の効果が示された。視程の改善では、FIDOの結果から推定すると、カテゴリ2(1/4マイルの視程)、3A(1/8マイルの視程)の改善には有効で1(1/2マイルの視程)を確保するには、加熱の出力を上げる必要がある。8/24’11 |
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HIPLEX-1: Statistical Evaluation Paul W. Mielke Jr., Kenneth J. Berry, Arnett S. Dennis,
Paul L. Smith, James R. Miller Jr., Bernard A. Silverman Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology Volume 23, Issue 4 (April 1984) pp. 513-522 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0513:HSE>2.0.CO;2 [Abstract]
[PDF (607 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] HIPLEX-1の統計的結果。無作為シーディングを実施して、効果を統計的に調べた。シーディングの効果が見えたのは種まき後5分だけであった。5分しか違いがなかった理由として、1)種まきの効果がない、2)物理的な仮定が適当でない、3)サンプルサイズが小さいが考えられる。HIPLE-1の初期段階だけが有効に活用できるようである。8/25’11 |
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HIPLEX-1: Experimental Design and
Response Variables Paul L. Smith, Arnett S. Dennis, Bernard A. Silverman,
Arlin B. Super, Edmond W. Holroyd III, William A. Cooper, Paul W. Mielke Jr.,
Kenneth J. Berry, Harold D. Orville, James R. Miller Jr. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology Volume 23, Issue 4 (April 1984) pp. 497-512 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0497:HEDARV>2.0.CO;2 [Abstract]
[PDF (1431 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] small cumulus
congestus clouds【積雲集合】 HIPLEX1について概要を述べる。積雲集合に対するランダムシーディング、モンタナの東で実施。種まき物質はドライアイスで降水形成の初期段階に導入する。十妙の短い雲であっても、降水の発生頻度、降水量とも増加することを期待している。実験のための[無作為]の取り扱い、評価方法についても議論する。レーダと航空機観測の結果を取りまとめ、HIPLEX1の20事例について表にまとめた。8/26’11 |
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Results of On-Top Glaciogenic Cloud
Seeding in Thailand. Part II: Exploratory Analyses William L. Woodley, Daniel Rosenfeld, Bernard A.
Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 42, Issue 7 (July 2003) pp. 939-951 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0939:ROOGCS>2.0.CO;2Abstract [Abstract]
[Full
Text] [PDF (164 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] 【ポイント：タイの冷たい雲への無作為シーディング、直下のPRTⅠでは概要、今回は結果を示す。】 Aタイプ；ヨウ化銀 Bタイプ？【A,BのタイプはPARTⅠでわかるのか？】 8/29’11 |
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Results of On-Top Glaciogenic Cloud
Seeding in Thailand. Part I: The Demonstration Experiment William L. Woodley, Daniel Rosenfeld, Bernard A.
Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 42, Issue 7 (July 2003) pp. 920-938 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0920:ROOGCS>2.0.CO;2Abstract [Abstract]
[Full
Text] [PDF (665 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] 1991-98にタイで無作為種まき実験が行われ、91-93に実施された調査的な実験で種まきで降水量が増加することがわかった。 AgIによる冷たい雲への種まき。Sバンドレーダで評価。353セルに対して種まき、289比較用で、種まきによる増雨率は35％で片側P値は0.139（約14%）であり、統計的に有意な2.5%には足りない。90%の確度の範囲は下限が-14%、上限が111%となった。統計的には「有意」とは認められなかったが、タイにおける種まきについて多くの知見を得た。8/30’11 |
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An Independent Statistical Reevaluation
of the South African Hygroscopic Flare Seeding Experiment Bernard A. Silverman Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 39, Issue 8 (August 2000) pp. 1373-1378 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1373:AISROT>2.0.CO;2Abstract [Abstract]
[Full
Text] [PDF (65 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] アフリカのフレアによる種まき実験を再検討した。Mather他はレーダで種まきの効果を検討しているが、再度調べてみると、種まきを実施した雲は、比較対象の雲に比べて10分前に大きいという結果が得られた。 「偶然のinadvertent」バイアスを除くと、いくつかの興味深い結果が得られた。物理的な説明が必要、とか、種まきの仮定を見直す、とか、アフリカのフレアによる種まきで増雨が認められたという主張に対して反論するものはない、である。8/31’11 |
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Results of the Thailand Warm-Cloud
Hygroscopic Particle Seeding Experiment Bernard A. Silverman, Wathana Sukarnjanaset Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 39, Issue 7 (July 2000) pp. 1160-1175 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1160:ROTTWC>2.0.CO;2 [Abstract]
[Full
Text] [PDF (203 KB)] [Add
to Favorites] タイの無作為種まき実験（暖かい雲）への結果。 67事例（シーディング34、Non33）定量解析を実施した。塩化カルシウムによる種まき。種まきの概念モデルを更新することができた。9/1’11 |
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Artificial Neural Networks and Long-Range
Precipitation Prediction in California David Silverman, John A. Dracup Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 39, Issue 1 (January 2000) pp. 57-66 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<0057:ANNALR>2.0.CO;2
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The Rain Enhancement Experiment in
Puglia, Italy: Statistical Evaluation R. List, K. R. Gabriel, B. A. Silverman, Z. Levin, T.
Karacostas Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 38, Issue 3 (March 1999) pp. 281-289 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0281:TREEIP>2.0.CO;2
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GHIS—The GOES High-Resolution
Interferometer Sounder W. L. Smith, H. E. Revercomb, H. B. Howell, H-L. Huang,
R. O. Knuteson, E. W. Koenig, D. D. LaPorte, S. Silverman, L. A. Sromovsky,
H. M. Woolf Journal of Applied Meteorology Volume 29, Issue 12 (December 1990) pp. 1189-1204 doi:
10.1175/1520-0450(1990)029<1189:GGHRIS>2.0.CO;2
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